Science, not Stance, the Arabs' Weapon in Facing Climate Change

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a 113-country UN panel responsible for studying, proposing and following up the policies and measures required to deal with the phenomenon of climate change, or global warming, has attracted undivided attention.

The report, entitled 'Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis', is a summary directed at policymakers worldwide of the results of the fourth assessment, carried out by more than 2,000 scientists and specialists from around the world. It is the first of three reports to be issued this year. The other two are expected to address the impact of climate change and the action that could be taken.

The wide-scale interest in this report shown by most decision-making centers around the world and the mass media, especially in the developed countries, is attributable to the fact that the report links, for the first time and with a high degree of certainty, the high temperature of the earth's atmosphere, especially since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution 250 years ago, and the human activities that emit greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane and other gases, given that the previous assessments could not rule out that this phenomenon is a result of natural climatic cycle unrelated to man's activity on the planet.

The report said the atmosphere's temperature was likely to increase by 2 to 5.4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, and that an increase by 6 degrees or more should not be ruled out. An expected result of this climate change is a constant rise in the level of coastal waves, and increased intense tropical cyclone activity, with an increase in its accompanying rains and floods, the disappearance of the North Pole's ice in the summer, an increase in the level of water in the oceans by an average of 0.43 meters by the end of the century, in addition to the constant melting of the North Pole's ice.

Regionally, the temperature of Europe's Mediterranean shores are projected to rise and the Alps are expected to become a summer vacation destination, while agricultural seasons are projected to extend in temperate zones and aridity is expected to increase in the semi-desert parts of Africa and South Asia.

In light of these high-impact findings, climate change could become the first and most important determiner of international relations and the future of energy-related markets. It could also become the most prominent item on the agenda of economic and social development at local, regional and international levels.

On the other hand, the extent and impact of the climate change and the humans' ability to deal with its challenges largely depend on the nature of the world order that will be established in the years to come.

In this context, the report highlighted the potential rise in temperature and in ocean water level through scenarios assuming different, but possible, tracks of the world order in the 21st century. It also highlighted the central role technology could play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions through making available clean uses of energy, developing clean energy, increasing the efficiency of production processes and the rapid shift towards knowledge economy.

This technological advancement goes hand in hand with a rapid economic growth and a decline in the world population, which peaked in mid-century, coupled with a contraction in the gap in the levels of economic and social development from one region to another and a convergence in the levels of their per capita income. All this is in the framework of civilized, cultural and social interaction between nations and peoples.

Of course, the Arab world is very much concerned with the findings of this report, not only because of the environmental and economic effects of climate change on the region or the subsequent regional and international obligations in the framework of handling this phenomenon, but also because many countries of the region produce oil and natural gas, and sit on huge reserves of them. These two materials, in addition to coal, are greenhouse gases-generating sources when they are used. In view of the scientific, objective nature of the report, particularly its balanced presentation of alternatives or tracks that can be tackled to deal with the phenomenon of climate change, although it does not rule out the possibility of a complete elimination of fossil fuel; it offers other scenarios that maintain the role of fossil fuel in future energy markets, provided that they are used in a clean way, that is to purify them of carbon dioxide emissions when used.

Thus, it is in the national interest of the Arab world to respond positively to this report, and to adopt and abide by its orientations, especially those related to founding a new world order that is characterized by fairness and communication between peoples and civilizations, and achieves convergence in the level of per capita income between different regions and territories.

It is also important for the Arab countries to strengthen their contribution to the work of the IPCC, especially that no Arab name was on the list of authors of this report. They should also develop their scientific and technological capabilities in the areas of environment, climate, and so on, take the initiative of developing and adopting clean uses of fossil energy, oil and natural gas, and contribute to the efforts of scientific research and development in this field.

As Arab fossil energy producers and other producers around the world have common interests, strengthening the cooperation and participation, and forging alliances at international and regional levels will actively contribute to safeguarding the future of these resources in the energy markets and boost their revenues of economic and social development.

The scientific and objective nature of the report will not be prevent some parties from attempting to use it to achieve personal objectives or political targets through the selection of what fits those interests and ignoring what does not fit. A 'New York Times' article by Rosenthal and Revkin provides an example of this. "Many energy and environment experts see the rise in atmospheric temperature will double unless there is a prompt and sustained shift away from the 20th-century pattern of unfettered burning of coal and oil".

As we have seen, this is neither accurate nor included in the report, which concentrated on the use of clean energy through the development of the technology required. It has also stipulated making progress on several fronts, particularly those related to fair economic and social development with equitable and enlightened global order.

Therefore, oil-producing Arab countries ought to be familiar with all aspects and dimensions of this report, and use it to develop an effective strategy that helps them play a positive role in dealing with the greenhouse effect and avoid the detrimental impacts on their interests.

Such strategy will also help them avoid falling into positions they do not want, or are not consistent with their strategic interests and objectives.

* Mr. Khalil Zahr is a Lebanese Development Affairs Adviser